SVB Financial
SIVBEquityContagion
72/100
SVB Financial (SIVB) — a narrative-driven contagion (score 72/100). A -60.4% move over 1 session on 66.2× volume; the social signal led the price by 1 days across 2 languages.
Index case
Mar 8, 2023
X / fintwit (VC)
Signal → event
1 day
shock Mar 9, 2023
Move
-60.4%
66.2× volume
Cross-language
1 jump
2 countries
Transmission — communities · countries · languages
index case early peaklanguage / country jump
Each row is a community/country; every dot is a real post placed on the UTC timeline and shaded early → peak; cyan lines trace the narrative jumping across a language or border. The dashed shock line marks when price actually moved — dots to its left are the contagion forming before the market reacted, which is the lead this autopsy is built to expose.
Spread-rate
communities languages
Price
Case report
01
Outcome
SVB Financial (SIVB) — a narrative-driven contagion (score 72/100). A -60.4% move over 1 session on 66.2× volume; the social signal led the price by 1 days across 2 languages.
02
Index case
Patient zero: a influencer post in X / fintwit (VC) (English, US) at 2023-03-08T23:50:00Z.
“Founders — read SVB's 8-K tonight. They just dumped $21B of securities at a $1.8B loss and are scrambling to raise $2.25B in equity. That is not a healthy bank. If you have payroll there, move your operating cash to a too-big-to-fail tonigh…”
03
Transmission timeline
The narrative touched 7 communities, 2 languages and 2 countries: 6 cross-community and 1 cross-language jumps, median language-jump latency 1.8h.
04
Spread-rate curve
Cumulative reach grew to 11 posts across 7 communities and 2 languages by 2023-03-10.
05
Signal → event offset
Signal onset (2023-03-08) led the -60.4% move (2023-03-09) by 1 day.
06
Early-warning
With 1 cross-language jump forming, an early-warning would have fired ~1 day before the move.
07
Verdict
All three discriminators clear: a qualifying shock, a leading signal, and cross-language spread.