Patient Zerocontagion autopsy for market shocks
Explains — not advice

Gold

GOLDCommodity (spot / GLD)
Macro — not a contagion
15/100

Gold — macro-driven, NOT a contagion (score 15/100). Narrative share: MACRO. Move tracks a macro driver (FOMC decision + Summary of Economic Projections (Dec 2023)); chatter is macro analysis, not a cross-language retail narrative.

Move tracks a macro driver (FOMC decision + Summary of Economic Projections (Dec 2023)); chatter is macro analysis, not a cross-language retail narrative.
Index case
Dec 4, 2023
X / macro
Signal → event
—
no shock
Move
—
no qualifying shock
Cross-language
1 jump
3 countries
Transmission — communities · countries · languages
USUKFRcommunity jump · 97.4hamplifier · 97.4hamplifier · 27.5hcommunity jump · 0.6hcommunity jump · 13.2hlanguage jump · 2.4hamplifier · 22.8hamplifier · 70.4hamplifier · 100.8hamplifier · 121.5hX / macro · US/ENBloomberg Markets · US/ENX / macro · US/ENX / macro · US/ENReuters Business · US/ENX / FX · UK/ENBoursorama — Actus Marchés · FR/FRX / macro · US/ENX / FX · UK/ENBloomberg Markets · US/ENX / macro · US/ENDec 1, 2023Dec 15, 2023Dec 29, 2023
index case early peaklanguage / country jump

Each row is a community/country; every dot is a real post placed on the UTC timeline and shaded early → peak; cyan lines trace the narrative jumping across a language or border. The dashed shock line marks when price actually moved — dots to its left are the contagion forming before the market reacted, which is the lead this autopsy is built to expose.

Spread-rate5 communities · 2 languages
Dec 1Dec 29
communities languages
Pricebackdrop — not the point
2,078.41,978.4Dec 1Dec 29
▶ Counterfactual replay
Case report
01
Outcome
Gold — macro-driven, NOT a contagion (score 15/100). Narrative share: MACRO. Move tracks a macro driver (FOMC decision + Summary of Economic Projections (Dec 2023)); chatter is macro analysis, not a cross-language retail narrative.
02
Index case
Patient zero: a analyst post in X / macro (English, US) at 2023-12-04T13:15:00Z. “Gold's overnight spike to ~$2,135 and the immediate fade is a positioning flush, not a thesis. What actually matters into next week: the FOMC dots and where 10y real yields settle. Watch the curve, not the candle.”
03
Transmission timeline
The narrative touched 5 communities, 2 languages and 3 countries: 4 cross-community and 1 cross-language jumps, median language-jump latency 2.4h.
04
Spread-rate curve
Cumulative reach grew to 11 posts across 5 communities and 2 languages by 2023-12-27.
05
Signal → event offset
No qualifying market event to offset against.
06
Early-warning
Early-warning would have flagged the scheduled/macro driver, not a contagion.
07
Verdict
No qualifying price shock (largest single session 2.5% < ±20%). No volume confirmation (peak 1.6× < 3× average).