Patient Zerocontagion autopsy for market shocks
Explains — not advice

Defense / rearmament

defenseTheme — sector ETF (ITA)
Thematic — mixed
71/100

Defense / rearmament — thematic ignition across 4 languages and the basket. Narrative share: MIXED. A genuine narrative spread across 4 languages AND real order books/policy (Germany announces €100B Bundeswehr special fund ("Zeitenwende" speech)) are present — both contribute.

A genuine narrative spread across 4 languages AND real order books/policy (Germany announces €100B Bundeswehr special fund ("Zeitenwende" speech)) are present — both contribute.
Basket co-movement — 8 names across 5 countriesITA ETF · indexed to 100 · +14.9%
USEN
LMTLockheed Martin
RTXRaytheon Technologies
UKEN
BA.LBAE Systems
FRFR
HO.PAThales
AM.PADassault Aviation
DEDE
RHM.DERheinmetall
KRKO
012450.KSHanwha Aerospace
079550.KSLIG Nex1
defenserearmamentZeitenwende방산軍需réarmementAufrüstung
Index case
Feb 24, 2022
r/stocks
Signal → event
no shock
Move
no qualifying shock
Cross-language
3 jumps
5 countries
Transmission — communities · countries · languages
USDEFRUKKRcommunity jump · 8.8hcommunity jump · 29.6hlanguage jump · 43.8hamplifier · 15.4hlanguage jump · 25.3hcommunity jump · 23.3hcommunity jump · 3.3hlanguage jump · 13.8hcommunity jump · 24.8hcommunity jump · 84.1hamplifier · 70.8hamplifier · 148.7hcommunity jump · 190.3hr/stocks · US/ENStockTwits $ITA · US/ENX / fintwit · US/ENwallstreet-online.de Forum (Rheinmetall) · DE/DEwallstreet-online.de Forum (Rheinmetall) · DE/DEBoursorama Forum (Thales) · FR/FRBoursorama Forum (Dassault Aviation) · FR/FRr/UKInvesting · UK/EN네이버 종목토론방 (한화에어로스페이스) · KR/KO네이버 종목토론방 (LIG넥스원) · KR/KOReuters Business · UK/ENX / fintwit · US/ENwallstreet-online.de Forum (Rheinmetall) · DE/DEX / retail · US/ENFeb 21, 2022Mar 12, 2022Mar 31, 2022
index case early peaklanguage / country jump

Each row is a community/country; every dot is a real post placed on the UTC timeline and shaded early → peak; cyan lines trace the narrative jumping across a language or border. The dashed shock line marks when price actually moved — dots to its left are the contagion forming before the market reacted, which is the lead this autopsy is built to expose.

Spread-rate11 communities · 4 languages
Feb 21Mar 31
communities languages
Pricebackdrop — not the point
114.798.2Feb 21Mar 31
▶ Counterfactual replay
Case report
01
Outcome
Defense / rearmament — thematic ignition across 4 languages and the basket. Narrative share: MIXED. A genuine narrative spread across 4 languages AND real order books/policy (Germany announces €100B Bundeswehr special fund ("Zeitenwende" speech)) are present — both contribute.
02
Index case
Patient zero: a retail post in r/stocks (English, US) at 2022-02-24T06:20:00Z. “Russia just invaded Ukraine. This is a structural regime change for defense budgets — Europe has underspent for 30 years and that ends today. LMT, RTX and the whole ITA basket re-rate from here. This isn't a one-day headline pop, it's a mul…”
03
Transmission timeline
The narrative touched 11 communities, 4 languages and 5 countries: 10 cross-community and 3 cross-language jumps, median language-jump latency 25.3h.
04
Spread-rate curve
Cumulative reach grew to 14 posts across 11 communities and 4 languages by 2022-03-24.
05
Signal → event offset
No qualifying market event to offset against.
06
Early-warning
Early-warning signature present; see the replay for the day-by-day climb.
07
Verdict
No qualifying price shock (largest single session 4.1% < ±20%). No volume confirmation (peak 2.3× < 3× average).