Patient Zerocontagion autopsy for market shocks
Explains — not advice

AI semiconductors

semisTheme — sector ETF (SMH)
Thematic — mixed
73/100

AI semiconductors — thematic ignition across 4 languages and the basket. Narrative share: MIXED. A genuine narrative spread across 4 languages AND real order books/policy (TSMC signals AI-driven CoWoS advanced-packaging capacity sold out / expansion) are present — both contribute.

A genuine narrative spread across 4 languages AND real order books/policy (TSMC signals AI-driven CoWoS advanced-packaging capacity sold out / expansion) are present — both contribute.
Basket co-movement — 9 names across 5 countriesSMH ETF · indexed to 100 · +20.5%
USEN
NVDANVIDIA
AMDAdvanced Micro Devices
AVGOBroadcom
TWZH
TSMTSMC
KRKO
005930.KSSamsung Electronics
000660.KSSK Hynix
JPJA
8035.TTokyo Electron
6857.TAdvantest
CNZH
688981.SSSMIC
AI chipsGPUHBM엔비디아반도체半導体半导体AI 버블
Index case
May 16, 2023
r/stocks
Signal → event
no shock
Move
no qualifying shock
Cross-language
3 jumps
5 countries
Transmission — communities · countries · languages
USKRCNJPUKcommunity jump · 25.7hcommunity jump · 46.8hlanguage jump · 59.4hlanguage jump · 24.7hcommunity jump · 20.3hcommunity jump · 36.8hlanguage jump · 12.6hcommunity jump · 1.5hcommunity jump · 2.3hamplifier · 94.8hamplifier · 58.8hcommunity jump · 155.8hcommunity jump · 135.6hcommunity jump · 154.6hamplifier · 182.3hr/stocks · US/ENStockTwits $SMH · US/ENX / fintwit · US/EN네이버 종목토론방 (SK하이닉스) · KR/KO雪球 (Xueqiu) — 台积电(TSM) · CN/ZHr/wallstreetbets · US/ENCNBC · US/EN5ch 市況2 · JP/JA네이버 종목토론방 (삼성전자) · KR/KO雪球 (Xueqiu) · CN/ZH雪球 (Xueqiu) — 台积电(TSM) · CN/ZHX / fintwit · US/EN5ch 半導体 · JP/JAReuters Business · UK/EN디시인사이드 주식 갤러리 · KR/KOStockTwits $SMH · US/ENMay 15, 2023Jun 7, 2023Jun 30, 2023
index case early peaklanguage / country jump

Each row is a community/country; every dot is a real post placed on the UTC timeline and shaded early → peak; cyan lines trace the narrative jumping across a language or border. The dashed shock line marks when price actually moved — dots to its left are the contagion forming before the market reacted, which is the lead this autopsy is built to expose.

Spread-rate13 communities · 4 languages
May 15Jun 30
communities languages
Pricebackdrop — not the point
166.8138.4May 15Jun 30
▶ Counterfactual replay
Case report
01
Outcome
AI semiconductors — thematic ignition across 4 languages and the basket. Narrative share: MIXED. A genuine narrative spread across 4 languages AND real order books/policy (TSMC signals AI-driven CoWoS advanced-packaging capacity sold out / expansion) are present — both contribute.
02
Index case
Patient zero: a retail post in r/stocks (English, US) at 2023-05-16T13:40:00Z. “Everyone is sleeping on what ChatGPT actually means: every hyperscaler is about to spend insane money on GPUs. AI doesn't run on vibes, it runs on silicon. NVDA owns the training stack, but the whole SMH basket re-rates — AMD, Broadcom, TSM…”
03
Transmission timeline
The narrative touched 13 communities, 4 languages and 5 countries: 12 cross-community and 3 cross-language jumps, median language-jump latency 24.7h.
04
Spread-rate curve
Cumulative reach grew to 16 posts across 13 communities and 4 languages by 2023-06-27.
05
Signal → event offset
No qualifying market event to offset against.
06
Early-warning
Early-warning signature present; see the replay for the day-by-day climb.
07
Verdict
No qualifying price shock (largest single session 8.8% < ±20%). No volume confirmation (peak 2.4× < 3× average).