Hertz Global
HTZEquityContagion
67/100
Hertz Global (HTZ) — a narrative-driven contagion (score 67/100). A 31.8% move over 1 session on 3.3× volume; the social signal led the price by 3 days across 3 languages.
Index case
Jun 2, 2020
r/wallstreetbets
Signal → event
3 days
shock Jun 5, 2020
Move
+31.8%
3.3× volume
Cross-language
2 jumps
3 countries
Transmission — communities · countries · languages
index case early peaklanguage / country jump
Each row is a community/country; every dot is a real post placed on the UTC timeline and shaded early → peak; cyan lines trace the narrative jumping across a language or border. The dashed shock line marks when price actually moved — dots to its left are the contagion forming before the market reacted, which is the lead this autopsy is built to expose.
Spread-rate
communities languages
Price
Case report
01
Outcome
Hertz Global (HTZ) — a narrative-driven contagion (score 67/100). A 31.8% move over 1 session on 3.3× volume; the social signal led the price by 3 days across 3 languages.
02
Index case
Patient zero: a retail post in r/wallstreetbets (English, US) at 2020-06-02T13:45:00Z.
“Hear me out: $HTZ already filed Chapter 11, so it's basically a free lottery ticket. Downside is zero (it's already zero), upside is a 10-bagger if the bankruptcy plan leaves anything for shareholders. Everyone's piling in. YOLO. 🚗🚀”
03
Transmission timeline
The narrative touched 6 communities, 3 languages and 3 countries: 5 cross-community and 2 cross-language jumps, median language-jump latency 17.3h.
04
Spread-rate curve
Cumulative reach grew to 9 posts across 6 communities and 3 languages by 2020-06-12.
05
Signal → event offset
Signal onset (2020-06-02) led the 31.8% move (2020-06-05) by 3 days.
06
Early-warning
With 2 cross-language jumps forming, an early-warning would have fired ~3 days before the move.
07
Verdict
All three discriminators clear: a qualifying shock, a leading signal, and cross-language spread.