Patient Zerocontagion autopsy for market shocks
Explains — not advice

Quantum computing

quantumTheme — sector ETF (QTUM)
Thematic — narrative
82/100

Quantum computing — thematic ignition across 4 languages and the basket. Narrative share: NARRATIVE. Narrative spread across 4 languages with no fundamental/macro driver in the window.

Narrative spread across 4 languages with no fundamental/macro driver in the window.
Basket co-movement — 6 names across 4 countriesQTUM ETF · indexed to 100 · +14.5%
USEN
IONQIonQ
RGTIRigetti Computing
QBTSD-Wave Quantum
KRKO
039030.KQEO Technics (KR quantum/photonics play)
JPJA
6701.TNEC (JP quantum-annealing/research exposure)
CNZH
0992.HKLenovo (CN quantum-compute exposure)
quantumWillowqubitquantum supremacy양자컴퓨터量子コンピュータ量子计算
Index case
Dec 2, 2024
r/wallstreetbets
Signal → event
no shock
Move
no qualifying shock
Cross-language
3 jumps
4 countries
Transmission — communities · countries · languages
USKRJPCNcommunity jump · 49.3hcommunity jump · 46.4hamplifier · 78.8hamplifier · 17.8hlanguage jump · 9.8hcommunity jump · 24.8hlanguage jump · 23.2hlanguage jump · 74.4hcommunity jump · 34.3hcommunity jump · 50.3hamplifier · 82.3hamplifier · 395.8hamplifier · 12.5hr/wallstreetbets · US/ENStockTwits $RGTI · US/ENX / fintwit · US/ENX / fintwit · US/ENr/wallstreetbets · US/EN네이버 종목토론방 (양자컴퓨터 테마) · KR/KO디시인사이드 주식 갤러리 · KR/KO5ch 市況2 · JP/JA雪球 (Xueqiu) 量子计算 · CN/ZHBloomberg Markets · US/ENStockTwits $QBTS · US/EN네이버 종목토론방 (양자컴퓨터 테마) · KR/KOX / fintwit · US/EN5ch 市況2 · JP/JADec 1, 2024Dec 21, 2024Jan 10, 2025
index case early peaklanguage / country jump

Each row is a community/country; every dot is a real post placed on the UTC timeline and shaded early → peak; cyan lines trace the narrative jumping across a language or border. The dashed shock line marks when price actually moved — dots to its left are the contagion forming before the market reacted, which is the lead this autopsy is built to expose.

Spread-rate9 communities · 4 languages
Dec 1Jan 10
communities languages
Pricebackdrop — not the point
92.862.7Dec 1Jan 10
▶ Counterfactual replay
Case report
01
Outcome
Quantum computing — thematic ignition across 4 languages and the basket. Narrative share: NARRATIVE. Narrative spread across 4 languages with no fundamental/macro driver in the window.
02
Index case
Patient zero: a retail post in r/wallstreetbets (English, US) at 2024-12-02T15:10:00Z. “Quantum computing is the next AI trade and nobody is positioned. IONQ, RGTI and QBTS are tiny floats with basically no revenue — which means ANY headline sends them vertical. Loading calls before the narrative wakes up. This is a story stoc…”
03
Transmission timeline
The narrative touched 9 communities, 4 languages and 4 countries: 8 cross-community and 3 cross-language jumps, median language-jump latency 23.2h.
04
Spread-rate curve
Cumulative reach grew to 14 posts across 9 communities and 4 languages by 2025-01-09.
05
Signal → event offset
No qualifying market event to offset against.
06
Early-warning
Early-warning signature present; see the replay for the day-by-day climb.
07
Verdict
No qualifying price shock (largest single session 18.1% < ±20%). No volume confirmation (peak 2.7× < 3× average).