Patient Zerocontagion autopsy for market shocks
Explains — not advice

GameStop

GMEEquity
Contagion
92/100

GameStop (GME) — a narrative-driven contagion (score 92/100). A 57.4% move over 1 session on 18.2× volume; the social signal led the price by 9 days across 6 languages.

Index case
Jan 4, 2021
r/wallstreetbets
Signal → event
9 days
shock Jan 13, 2021
Move
+57.4%
18.2× volume
Cross-language
5 jumps
7 countries
Transmission — communities · countries · languages
USKRJPDEFRUKCNshockamplifier · 49.6hcommunity jump · 46.9hcommunity jump · 70.3hlanguage jump · 12.9hlanguage jump · 23.4hlanguage jump · 30.8hlanguage jump · 24.7hcommunity jump · 73.8hcommunity jump · 106.5hamplifier · 66hlanguage jump · 13hcommunity jump · 43.3hcommunity jump · 18.2hr/wallstreetbets · US/ENr/wallstreetbets · US/ENStockTwits $GME · US/ENX / fintwit · US/EN네이버 종목토론방 (GME) · KR/KO5ch 市況2 · JP/JAwallstreet-online.de Forum · DE/DEBoursorama Forum · FR/FRr/UKInvesting · UK/ENBloomberg Markets · US/ENr/wallstreetbets · US/EN雪球 (Xueqiu) · CN/ZH디시인사이드 주식 갤러리 · KR/KOX / retail · US/ENJan 4, 2021Jan 20, 2021Feb 5, 2021
index case early peaklanguage / country jump

Each row is a community/country; every dot is a real post placed on the UTC timeline and shaded early → peak; cyan lines trace the narrative jumping across a language or border. The dashed shock line marks when price actually moved — dots to its left are the contagion forming before the market reacted, which is the lead this autopsy is built to expose.

Spread-rate12 communities · 6 languages
Jan 4Feb 5
communities languages
Pricebackdrop — not the point
347.5117.25Jan 4Feb 5
▶ Counterfactual replay
Case report
01
Outcome
GameStop (GME) — a narrative-driven contagion (score 92/100). A 57.4% move over 1 session on 18.2× volume; the social signal led the price by 9 days across 6 languages.
02
Index case
Patient zero: a retail post in r/wallstreetbets (English, US) at 2021-01-04T14:35:00Z. “GME short interest is 140% of the float. This isn't a meme — it's mathematically a powder keg. When this many shares are sold short, a squeeze isn't speculation, it's a question of *when*. I'm holding 🚀”
03
Transmission timeline
The narrative touched 12 communities, 6 languages and 7 countries: 11 cross-community and 5 cross-language jumps, median language-jump latency 23.4h.
04
Spread-rate curve
Cumulative reach grew to 14 posts across 12 communities and 6 languages by 2021-01-28.
05
Signal → event offset
Signal onset (2021-01-04) led the 57.4% move (2021-01-13) by 9 days.
06
Early-warning
With 5 cross-language jumps forming, an early-warning would have fired ~9 days before the move.
07
Verdict
All three discriminators clear: a qualifying shock, a leading signal, and cross-language spread.