Meta Platforms
FBEquityConfounded
33/100
Meta Platforms (FB) — a confounded move, NOT a contagion (score 33/100). The move coincides with a scheduled earnings report (Meta Platforms Q4 2021 earnings (after close)); attributable to that, not a contagion.
Index case
Jan 24, 2022
r/stocks
Signal → event
10 days
shock Feb 3, 2022
Move
-26.4%
5.7× volume
Cross-language
1 jump
2 countries
Transmission — communities · countries · languages
index case early peaklanguage / country jump
Each row is a community/country; every dot is a real post placed on the UTC timeline and shaded early → peak; cyan lines trace the narrative jumping across a language or border. The dashed shock line marks when price actually moved — dots to its left are the contagion forming before the market reacted, which is the lead this autopsy is built to expose.
Spread-rate
communities languages
Price
Case report
01
Outcome
Meta Platforms (FB) — a confounded move, NOT a contagion (score 33/100). The move coincides with a scheduled earnings report (Meta Platforms Q4 2021 earnings (after close)); attributable to that, not a contagion.
02
Index case
Patient zero: a retail post in r/stocks (English, US) at 2022-01-24T15:40:00Z.
“FB earnings are next week (after close Feb 2). Holding into the print — Reels and Reality Labs spend are the things I'm watching, but I'm not expecting fireworks. Anyone trimming before earnings?”
03
Transmission timeline
The narrative touched 5 communities, 2 languages and 2 countries: 4 cross-community and 1 cross-language jumps, median language-jump latency 5.8h.
04
Spread-rate curve
Cumulative reach grew to 8 posts across 5 communities and 2 languages by 2022-02-04.
05
Signal → event offset
Signal onset (2022-01-24) led the -26.4% move (2022-02-03) by 10 days.
06
Early-warning
Early-warning would have flagged the scheduled/macro driver, not a contagion.
07
Verdict
Move attributable to a earnings report.