Patient Zerocontagion autopsy for market shocks
Explains — not advice

Sarepta Therapeutics

SRPTEquity
Reaction
20/100

Sarepta Therapeutics (SRPT) — a reaction, NOT a leading contagion (score 20/100). Chatter spiked AFTER the 35% move.

Index case
Jun 22, 2023
StockTwits $SRPT
Signal → event
1 day
shock Jun 23, 2023
Move
+35.0%
6.5× volume
Cross-language
1 jump
2 countries
Transmission — communities · countries · languages
USKRshockcommunity jump · 0.8hcommunity jump · 15.4hamplifier · 2.4hamplifier · 2.7hlanguage jump · 5.6hcommunity jump · 62.5hcommunity jump · 26.4hStockTwits $SRPT · US/ENX / fintwit · US/ENr/biotech_stocks · US/ENX / fintwit · US/ENStockTwits $SRPT · US/EN네이버 종목토론방 (SRPT) · KR/KOr/wallstreetbets · US/ENX / retail · US/ENJun 12, 2023Jun 24, 2023Jul 7, 2023
index case early peaklanguage / country jump

Each row is a community/country; every dot is a real post placed on the UTC timeline and shaded early → peak; cyan lines trace the narrative jumping across a language or border. The dashed shock line marks when price actually moved — dots to its left are the contagion forming before the market reacted, which is the lead this autopsy is built to expose.

Spread-rate6 communities · 2 languages
Jun 12Jul 7
communities languages
Pricebackdrop — not the point
178.4121.4Jun 12Jul 7
▶ Counterfactual replay
Case report
01
Outcome
Sarepta Therapeutics (SRPT) — a reaction, NOT a leading contagion (score 20/100). Chatter spiked AFTER the 35% move.
02
Index case
Patient zero: a retail post in StockTwits $SRPT (English, US) at 2023-06-22T20:55:00Z. “$SRPT moving AH — did the FDA just approve Elevidys?? Someone confirm I'm not dreaming. First gene therapy for Duchenne, this thing was flat all week.”
03
Transmission timeline
The narrative touched 6 communities, 2 languages and 2 countries: 5 cross-community and 1 cross-language jumps, median language-jump latency 5.6h.
04
Spread-rate curve
Cumulative reach grew to 8 posts across 6 communities and 2 languages by 2023-06-27.
05
Signal → event offset
The signal did NOT lead the move — chatter clustered at/after the 35% move (2023-06-23). A reaction, not a leading contagion.
06
Early-warning
Early-warning would NOT have fired ahead of the move — the signal trailed the price.
07
Verdict
Social signal lags the price move — a reaction, not a leading contagion.